The following chart is the performance ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in comparison to the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 historically outperforms the Dow Jones.
When the black line is rising, it indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a more risk-off index concentrated in mature, cash-flow-driven companies – is outperforming the S&P 500, which has increasingly taken on a risk-on profile due to its heavy weighting toward growth-oriented large-cap stocks.
When the black line is falling, it reflects the opposite condition: the S&P 500 is outperforming the Dow Jones, signaling a shift toward risk-on leadership.
The Dow has been outperforming the S&P since mid-October. A brief period is ahead where the S&P is likely to outperform the Dow, but starting at the date window listed on the chart, expect the Dow to outperform definitively.
This chart will be re-run mid summer to track the forecast results.
Chart expands upon click. Logged-in members can view and expand the full forecast chart.