Market Alert: Important S&P 500 Update Forecast
The market has shown strength into what was forecasted to be a short term cycle low at this time. The fact the market did not sell-off into this low is bullish in the intermediate term.
As long as a “cycle inversion” did not occur (meaning the markets move in a completely opposite direction than a given forecast) the markets often find greater bullish lift after moving into a cycle low without price action collapsing into it.
My work and the work of my partners here at EquiPredict Analytics involves continually approaching the market from various and unrelated angles in an attempt to produce forecast data that conflicts. This might sound like a counter-intuitive approach, but the reason behind identifying disagreeing data is simple:
Risk Management
If you manage risk, the market takes care of the rest. The market is designed to go up in the long run, not down. Thus, if we can produce forecasts that DISAGREE, we know we likely do not have a stable forecast.
If forecasts from various approaches do in fact agree, the forecast probabilities rise significantly.
The following data and forecast charts for the S&P 500 are for EquiPredict Subscribers only. You must be logged-in to view:
[Forecast charts viewable to subscribers only]